US Election

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迪斯马森
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Re: US Election

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/14/16 17:38

In the physical world, it's survival of the fittest. Values don't mean anything, unless it's part of one's survival strategy, e.g. a tool to brainwash others for one's own benefit.

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跑锅
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Re: US Election

帖子跑锅 » 11/14/16 17:41

迪斯马森 写了:In the physical world, it's survival of the fittest. Values don't mean anything, unless it's part of one's survival strategy, e.g. a tool to brainwash others for one's own benefit.

that's right. the strong man should kill you, take your money and women.
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

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迪斯马森
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Re: US Election

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/14/16 17:53

It's happening everywhere everyday. If you can't see that, you are blind.
老虎每天都吃羊,那为什么羊没有死绝?你的思维=3 year old
老虎和羊是共存的,你整天想着把老虎训练成吃草,有用吗?

跑锅 写了:
迪斯马森 写了:In the physical world, it's survival of the fittest. Values don't mean anything, unless it's part of one's survival strategy, e.g. a tool to brainwash others for one's own benefit.

that's right. the strong man should kill you, take your money and women.

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迪斯马森
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Re: US Election

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/14/16 18:04

难怪美国的大学越办越差,教出来的学生越来越没有竞争力,因为招叫兽专门招脑袋不灵光的

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跑锅
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Re: US Election

帖子跑锅 » 11/15/16 12:00

跑锅 写了:Trump doesn't have a strong opinion/idea on most issues. So things will be very fluid. Most of his campaign promises are clearly BS. You'll have to pay attention to who he recruits around him.


http://www.dailywire.com/news/10770/3-t ... n-shapiro#
3 Thoughts On Steve Bannon As White House 'Chief Strategist'
AP Photo/Gerald HerbertAP Photo/Gerald Herbert
BY: BEN SHAPIRO NOVEMBER 14, 2016

So, in a not-unexpected move, Donald Trump has elevated former Breitbart News CEO Steve Bannon to chief strategist of the White House.

When I left Breitbart back in March, I accused Bannon of turning Breitbart News into Trump Pravda; as I wrote, “Indeed, Breitbart News, under the chairmanship of Steve Bannon, has put a stake through the heart of Andrew’s legacy. In my opinion, Steve Bannon is a bully, and has sold out Andrew’s mission in order to back another bully, Donald Trump; he has shaped the company into Trump’s personal Pravda, to the extent that he abandoned and undercut his own reporter.”

That decision paid off for Bannon – in August, he became Trump’s campaign “CEO.” At that point, I wrote this piece describing who Bannon was, and this one for The Washington Post describing his probable impact on the campaign.

With Bannon’s accession to a top White House role, it’s time to answer some brief questions about the man and what he’s likely to do.

Is Bannon Anti-Semitic And Racist? I have no evidence that Bannon’s a racist or that he’s an anti-Semite; the Huffington Post’s blaring headline “WHITE NATIONALIST IN THE WHITE HOUSE” is overstated, at the very least. With that said, as I wrote at The Washington Post in August, Bannon has openly embraced the racist and anti-Semitic alt-right – he called his Breitbart “the platform of the alt-right.” Milo Yiannopoulos, the star writer at the site, is an alt-right popularizer, even as he continuously declares with a wink that he’s not a member. The left’s opposition to Trump, and their attempts to declare all Trump support the alt-right have obfuscated what the movement is. The movement isn’t all Trump supporters. It’s not conservatives unsatisfied with Paul Ryan, nor is it people angry at the media. Bannon knows that. He’s a smart man, not an ignorant one. The alt-right, in a nutshell, believes that Western culture is inseparable from European ethnicity. I have no evidence Bannon believes that personally. But he’s happy to pander to those people and make common cause with them in order to transform conservatism into European far-right nationalist populism. That means that the alt-right will cheer Bannon along as he marbles Trump’s speeches with talk of “globalism” – and that Bannon won’t be pushing Trump to dump the racists and anti-Semites who support Trump anytime soon. After all, they love Bannon – actual white supremacists like Peter Brimelow called his August appointment “great news,” and Richard Spencer explained, “Breitbart has elective affinities with the Alt Right, and the Alt Right has clearly influenced Breitbart. In this way, Breitbart has acted as a ‘gateway’ to Alt Right ideas and writers. I don’t think it has done this deliberately; again, it’s a matter of elective affinities.” That doesn’t mean Bannon will push racist or anti-Semitic policy, or that he’ll be anti-Israel himself – unless it serves his interests.

What Does Bannon’s Accession Mean? Bannon has goals. One of those goals is maximization of personal power, which is why he spent the last decade and a half glomming onto powerful right-wing personalities (Bachmann, Morris, Palin), kissing their asses, and then moving on up the chain. With Breitbart and Trump, he picked two winners in a row – and that means he’s now at the pinnacle of American power.

So, what will he do with that power? He’ll target enemies. Bannon is one of the most vicious people in politics, which is why I’ve been joking for months that should Trump win, I’d be expecting my IRS audit any moment. That wasn’t completely a joke. He likes to destroy people.

But more importantly, Bannon’s interested in turning the Republican Party into a far-right European party. Because Republicans will like some of the policy that comes with that, it could happen. Here’s what I wrote in March about the Trump movement:

Trump is a European-style response to the European-style leftism of Barack Obama. He’s a soft European-style populist, from his interventionist economics to his closed-borders foreign policy. As I wrote in December, “Compare Trump’s platform with that of Marine Le Pen, whose French National Front poses a significant threat to the national political establishment. She calls for harsher penalties for criminals, significant restrictions on Muslim immigration to France, protectionism on trade, a restoration of the Franc as the national currency rather than the Euro, and big government in terms of health care. This sounds a lot like Trump.” But the European right is not the American right. The American right believes in Constitutional ideas about checks and balances and federalism and negative rights from government. The European right doesn’t believe any of these things. Should Trump win, we could watch American conservatism lose the only party it has ever had.

That’s the plan. Yesterday, The Daily Beast reported that Bannon reached out to Le Pen for “global ultra-right coalition.” Over the weekend Le Pen met with Nigel Farage of the UK Independent Party. And Trump met with Farage shortly after being elected. Bannon has always wanted to burn down the GOP. That’s still his goal. He wants it replaced with an American National Front party in fact if not in name.

Which War Will Bannon Lead? Bannon considers himself a wartime consigliore – always at war. Always. So the only question left is this: what will Bannon’s actual role be? It’s difficult to tell, since Trump announced the Bannon hire at the same time he announced that former RNC chairman Reince Priebus as his chief of staff. What will their relationship be like? Ed Morrissey of HotAir thinks that Bannon will lead the anti-media fight, and Reince will coordinate with Congress. That would be the best possible scenario.

Others have speculated that Bannon has been added to the team as a sop to the populist base, which would be angry at Trump hopping into bed with the most establishment-y fellow in Washington. That, too, would be fine.

It’s hard to tell from the outside what’s happening, but here’s a third theory: Reince is the bagman for Trump, and Bannon’s whispering in Trump’s ear. That would fit the fact pattern here, given Reince’s outsized praise for Bannon this morning: “wise and smart…very, very smart, very temperate.” Bannon is anything but temperate to those who disagree. He’s a consummate bully to anyone who disagrees; he's actually malevolent. Priebus may not have seen a lot of disagreement because he’s the one catering to Bannon’s agenda.

If Bannon’s leading and Reince is following, that bodes ill for the Republican agenda. Bannon opposes the Republican Party, hates Paul Ryan – minutes after the joint Bannon/Priebus announcement, Breitbart News approvingly tweeted about a Congressional rebellion against Speaker Ryan – and wants to watch it all “burn.” Bannon loves the firefight. The only question is which direction he’ll turn his fire.
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

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跑锅
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Re: US Election

帖子跑锅 » 11/15/16 12:02

http://www.dailywire.com/news/8441/i-kn ... n-shapiro#
I Know Trump's New Campaign Chairman, Steve Bannon. Here's What You Need To Know.
Photo by Danny Moloshok/Invision/AP, FileSteve Bannon
BY: BEN SHAPIRO AUGUST 17, 2016
UPDATED November 13, 2016

On November 13, President-Elect Donald Trump named Bannon his White House Chief Strategist. He will serve alongside White House Chief of Staff and former RNC Chairman Reince Preibus as co-equals, reportedly.

ORIGINAL: On Wednesday, the Trump campaign shifted top campaign staff: the new CEO of the campaign is, predictably and hilariously, Steven K. Bannon, the current chairman of Breitbart News. I have a bit of experience with Bannon, given that I was the editor-at-large of Breitbart News for four years, and worked closely with Breitbart and Bannon.

Here’s what you need to know about Bannon, as well as new campaign manager Kellyanne Conway.

1. Steve Bannon Turned Breitbart Into Trump Pravda For His Own Personal Gain. Back in March, I quit Breitbart News when it became clear to me that they had decided that loyalty to Donald Trump outweighed loyalty to their own employees, helping Trump smear one of their own reporters, Michelle Fields, by essentially calling her a liar for saying that she had been grabbed by then-Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

Andrew built his life and his career on one mission: fight the bullies. But Andrew’s life mission has been betrayed. Indeed, Breitbart News, under the chairmanship of Steve Bannon, has put a stake through the heart of Andrew’s legacy. In my opinion, Steve Bannon is a bully, and has sold out Andrew’s mission in order to back another bully, Donald Trump; he has shaped the company into Trump’s personal Pravda…the facts are undeniable: Breitbart News has become precisely the reverse of what Andrew would have wanted. Steve Bannon and those who follow his lead should be ashamed of themselves.

Not to say "I told you so," but I did tell you so.

2. Bannon Uses Celebrity Conservatives To Elevate His Personal Profile. Bannon began receiving conservative media attention for his documentary Generation Zero. And he began elevating his profile by latching onto Michele Bachmann with his documentary Fire From The Heartland. But he truly insinuated himself into the circles of conservative power by making a 2011 documentary about Sarah Palin, The Undefeated. His connection with Palin upped his brand in the movement significantly. He soon began appearing on Fox News with Sean Hannity fairly regularly, became personal friends with Hannity, and met Andrew Breitbart. He insinuated himself into Breitbart’s business by lending him office space, then made a documentary starring Breitbart, Occupy Unmasked. When Breitbart died, his business partner Larry Solov offered Bannon chairmanship of the company. Bannon then turned Breitbart into his personal domain, making himself a regularly bylined columnist (certainly rare for a major media company) and installing himself as a radio host on Breitbart Radio on Sirius XM. Finally, he used his role as Breitbart CEO to turn the outlet into Trump Pravda, creating a stepping stone to close connection with Trump. Breitbart publicly burned bridges with everyone to maintain its Trump loyalty. That was Bannon, a scorched-earth personal opportunist.

3. Bannon Took At Least One Major Breitbart Investor For A Serious Ride. One of the main investors in Breitbart News is Robert Mercer. The Mercer family put millions of dollars into a Ted Cruz super PAC during this election cycle, even as Bannon manipulated Breitbart News into a Cruz-bashing Trump propaganda outlet. The spokesperson for the Mercer family was Kellyanne Conway, who has now been installed as Trump’s campaign manager. I have been reliably informed by sources associated with the pro-Cruz super PAC that for months, as Bannon was using Breitbart News to promote Trump, the Mercers were defending Bannon’s neutrality to other Cruz supporters worried about Breitbart’s dishonest coverage about Cruz.

4. Breitbart’s Staff Lusts After Trump Involvement. Long before the billionaire officially entered the presidential race, Bannon was close to him; in April 2014, the Trump offices described Bannon thusly: “MAJOR SUPPORTER OF MR. TRUMP.” The new team at Trump headquarters will undoubtedly include all the Breitbart staffers who openly lusted after power within the Trump campaign: Joel Pollak, the Breitbart lawyer who desperately wanted to be a Trump speechwriter, and wrote a disgusting hit piece about me personally when I left and accurately accused the website of becoming an adjunct to the campaign; Matthew Boyle, the pseudo-journalist who reportedly bragged about becoming Trump’s press secretary; Milo Yiannopoulos, the Trump-worshipping alt-right droog stooge. They’re all in with their Godking, now.

5. Under Bannon’s Leadership, Breitbart Openly Embraced The White Supremacist Alt-Right. Andrew Breitbart despised racism. Truly despised it. He used to brag regularly about helping to integrate his fraternity at Tulane University. He insisted that racial stories be treated with special care to avoid even the whiff of racism. With Bannon embracing Trump, all that changed. Now Breitbart has become the alt-right go-to website, with Yiannopoulos pushing white ethno-nationalism as a legitimate response to political correctness, and the comment section turning into a cesspool for white supremacist mememakers.

6. This Is Precisely The Sort of Corrupt Media Relationship Breitbart Used To Abhor. Andrew Breitbart used his memoir, Righteous Indignation, to target one thing above all else: what he called the Democrat-Media Complex. He hated the merger of the Democrats and the media, and particularly despised their lie of objectivity. Breitbart News never claimed to be objective. But until Trump won the nomination, leadership at Breitbart News maintained that they had not become a loudspeaker for Trumpism. That was obviously a lie, and one Breitbart would hate. HATE. Now, it’s clear that Breitbart News is indeed Bannon.com and Trumpbart News. That’s pathetic and disgusting.

7. Trump’s Campaign Strategy Could Be The Launch Of A New Media Outlet. Because Bannon’s ambitions extend to Steve Bannon, he’ll tell Trump he’s doing a fantastic job even if he isn’t. That’s how Bannon Svengalis political figures and investors – by investing them in his personal genius, then hollowing them out from the inside. There’s a reason Sarah Palin went from legitimate political figure to parody artist to Trump endorser, with Steve Bannon standing alongside her every step of the way. There’s a reason Breitbart News went from hard-charging news outlet to drooling Trump mouthpiece. Bannon emerges from all of this unscathed. So what’s next on his agenda? If Trump wins, he’s in a position of high power; if Trump loses, Bannon could head up a new media empire with Trump’s support and the involvement of new Trump supporter and ousted former Fox News head Roger Ailes. Look for Sean Hannity to be a part of any such endeavor.

8. Bannon Is A Legitimately Sinister Figure. Many former employees of Breitbart News are afraid of Steve Bannon. He is a vindictive, nasty figure, infamous for verbally abusing supposed friends and threatening enemies. Bannon is a smarter version of Trump: he’s an aggressive self-promoter who name-drops to heighten his profile and woo bigger names, and then uses those bigger names as stepping stools to his next destination. Trump may be his final destination. Or it may not. He will attempt to ruin anyone who impedes his unending ambition, and he will use anyone bigger than he is – for example, Donald Trump – to get where he wants to go. Bannon knows that in the game of thrones, you win or die. And he certainly doesn’t intend to die. He’ll kill everyone else before he goes.

Bannon’s ascension is the predictable consummation of a romance he ardently pursued. I joked with friends months ago that by the end of the campaign, Steve Bannon would be running Trump’s campaign from a bunker. That’s now reality. Every nightmare for actual conservatives has come true in this campaign. Why not this one, too?
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

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跑锅
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注册: 11/14/07 13:31

Re: US Election

帖子跑锅 » 11/15/16 12:10

https://www.washingtonpost.com/postever ... er-the-gop

The Breitbart alt-right just took over the GOP
If Republicans aren't careful, they'll soon see true conservatism banished from their party.
By Ben Shapiro August 18
Ben Shapiro is editor-in-chief of the Daily Wire and author of several books including "Bullies: How the Left's Culture of Fear and Intimidation Silences Americans."

Here's what you need to know about the man who went from Breitbart News chairman to Donald Trump's campaign CEO before his appointment as chief White House strategist and senior counselor. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)
On Wednesday, Donald Trump’s campaign announced Breitbart News chairman Stephen Bannon as its new CEO — shocking no one in the conservative world.

Conservatives joked openly for months about “Trumpbart” and the transformation of Breitbart.com into, essentially, Bannon.com, but it was still something of a surprise that Trump would so publicly embrace Bannon, a man who helped transform a mainstream conservative website into a cesspool of the alt-right. It also comes as a surprise — or at least it should — that the Republican National Committee appears ready to go along with the Bannon-Breitbart-Trump takeover over the party, even as the Trump campaign’s latest move means RNC Chairman Reince Priebus now sits, effectively, side by side with alt-right Trump fans.

The takeover, now a virtual fait accompli, represents the dangerous seizure of the conservative movement by the alt-right.

Constitutional conservatives can’t stand the alt-right. Conservatives — real conservatives — believe that only a philosophy of limited government, God-given rights and personal responsibility can save the country. And that creed is not bound to race or ethnicity. Broad swaths of the alt-right, by contrast, believe in a creed-free, race-based nationalism, insisting, among other things, that birth on American soil confers superiority. The alt-right sees limited-government constitutionalism as passé; it holds that only nationalist populism on the basis of shared tribal identity can save the country. It’s a movement shot through with racism and anti-Semitism.

[Trump’s ‘extreme vetting’ is harsh, but probably legal]

Trump himself has flirted with the alt-right for months, from taking his sweet time distancing himself from former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke to failing to condemn alt-right anti-Semitic attacks on journalists. The alt-right association came into focus after I left the site in early March — I worked there as an editor for four years — with the elevation of alt-right cult hero Milo Yiannopoulos to a position of prominence.

I’d heard, of course, that the some of Breitbart’s comment sections had been occupied over previous months by a motley collection of white supremacists and anti-Semites (I generally never check the comments). I’d certainly felt their online wrath, accused by alt-righters of being an anti-Trump “cuck” — accusations that came with memes of gas chambers and “shekelmeister” cartoons that could have come directly from Der Stürmer. Such material flowed into my inbox and Twitter feed. That flow escalated dramatically after I declared that I would not support Trump, and it escalated again after I left Breitbart over its attempts to smear its own reporter, Michelle Fields, in order to shield then-Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski against charges that he’d yanked her by the arm at a campaign event.

But it wasn’t until March 29 that Breitbart’s full embrace of the alt-right became clear. That’s the day the site featured Yiannopoulos’s lengthy piece glorifying the alt-right. Yiannopoulos had already given interviews in which he stated that “Jews run the banks” and “Jews run the media,” dismissing anti-Semitic memes as merely “mischievous, dissident, trolly.” He wrote, along with co-author Allum Bokhari, this insane sentence: “There are many things that separate the alternative right from old-school racist skinheads (to whom they are often idiotically compared), but one thing stands out above all else: intelligence.”

And this is the cast of characters, and their enablers, to whom Trump has turned. Bannon is known, among other things, for his Sarah Palin documentary, “The Undefeated,” and his relationship with conservative patrons Rebekah and Robert Mercer. But he’s also the guy who ushered along the twisted turn at Breitbart.

If Republicans aren’t careful, he’ll inflict similar damage on their party now that he’s the top man running their standard-bearer’s campaign. If they don’t know it yet, the alt-right surely does. As one of its own, Richard Spencer, explained: “Breitbart has elective affinities with the alt-right, and the alt-right has clearly influenced Breitbart. In this way, Breitbart has acted as a ‘gateway’ to alt-right ideas and writers.” There’s now a path for this same kind of thinking to infiltrate the GOP.

[Trump loves conspiracy theories. So do his foes.]

None of this was Andrew Breitbart’s vision. He despised what he declared the dishonest, unspoken cooperation between the Democratic Party and major media outlets. In his memoir, “Righteous Indignation,” he wrote: “The left wins because it controls the narrative. The narrative is controlled by the media. The left is the media. Narrative is everything. I call it the Democrat-Media Complex — and I am at war to gain back control of the American narrative.” Andrew knew Trump wasn’t a conservative, and he despised racism — he routinely bragged about helping to integrate his fraternity at Tulane University, and was personally heartbroken over the accusations of racism directed at him after the Shirley Sherrod story.

But Breitbart News has become everything Andrew hated: a party organ, a pathetic cog in the Trump-Media Complex and a gathering place for white nationalists.

What does this mean for Trump’s campaign?

It means that like Breitbart, Trump will continue to tacitly embrace the alt-right, hoping, presumably, that adherents of its worldview will propel his campaign in the same way it has boosted Breitbart’s traffic by millions of monthly page views. Trump lives in a Breitbart fantasy world, and he’s now invited Bannon to personally decorate that world for him. The GOP establishment, too weak and cowardly to oust Trump earlier, risks displacing the true, constitutional conservatives for whom the party has been a natural political home, and now it looks prepared to ride the Trump train, next to alt-righters, all the way into the electoral ravine.
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

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迪斯马森
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阿普谈谈

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/15/16 12:11

川小平:美国要警惕右,但主要是防止左。

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Re: 阿普谈谈

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/15/16 13:40

一夜之间被抛弃,民主党的苦日子还在后头

金君达

美国波士顿大学政治学博士生

2016年的美国总统大选基本上尘埃落定,民主党及其支持者此时沉浸在一片悲痛之中;虽然时有针对新任总统特朗普的抗议、甚至各式各样试图“逆天改命”的请愿,但绝大多数人还是会选择向前看,毕竟党争不是生活的全部。然而对于民主党高层而言,他们今后的日子只怕更加难过,本次选举的大挫败可能在两年后的中期选举、甚至更远的美国政治中继续辐射对民主党不利的影响。普通美国民众和看热闹的国人可以借着大选余兴讨论一下美国选举制度的公正性,然而民主党高层和拥有投票权的左派精英此时应该清楚意识到,制度并不是大问题,真正的大问题就在美国民主党党内。

四年之前,笔者在华府的约翰·霍普金斯大学读书期间,亲眼见证了民主党同学们指点江山的豪气。有人信誓旦旦地宣称共和党即将长期成为少数党;按照他们的说法,共和党在美国政治话语中已经等同于“受教育程度低的美国男性白人”。相比起向来支持民主党的、不断壮大的移民人口,共和党的传统票仓呈现逐年萎缩之势,因此许多民主党人直到总统大选中佛罗里达飘红之前还意气风发。



希拉里发表败选演说,一度落泪

然而曾经两次支持奥巴马的铁锈带各州纷纷抛弃了希拉里·克林顿,连带着导致民主党输掉了两院和未来数年里2-4位大法官的提名权(取决于最高法院大法官退休情况)。2018年的中期选举中,两党2012年入选的参议员(民主党居多)位置成为角逐对象,蓝营可能会丢失更多的选票。

如果特朗普总统的第一任期相对成功,共和党方面争取2020年连任也不会太困难。带来长远影响的是2016到2020年间共和党能够提名的保守派大法官,这些法官将使得美国行政、立法、司法三大权力分支都被共和党势力掌握。

几乎是一夜之间,志得意满的民主党发现自己才是少数党,而且随着希拉里、拜登等人退出政治舞台而面临群龙无首的窘境。那么,美国民主党为何走到今天这一步,未来是否能走出困境、使美国的两党权力斗争保持平衡?

笔者个人的简短回答是,民主党的票仓过于宽泛,导致该党的竞选政策无法真正争取关键选民。相比之下,特朗普更有着希拉里不能企及的强大动员能力,因此赢得了大选。要想东山再起,民主党需要提出旗帜鲜明的左翼主张,至少切实争取动员美国中低收入群体。

首先需要明确,美国大选的竞选方式使得部分选民比其他人更重要。民主党的支持者虽然众多,其中却有许多是“不那么重要”的选民;共和党的胜利,在于抓住了五大湖等地的关键选民。

美国选举人制度的优点是它照顾人口少的州,使得少数人的声音得到重视,避免总统选举人将目光集中在大城市而忽略乡野农村。然而在实践中,这种制度使得中部工农手里的选票远比大城市居民重要;虽然美国每隔十年会通过人口普查调整选举人分配,每州至少三票的选举人制度(众议院至少1票+参议院2票)仍然对“小”州更为有利。

当美国的年轻人离开底特律等破落城市、走向灯红酒绿的纽约和洛杉矶,那些留在五大湖旧工业区的工人就渐渐变得举足轻重;虽然城市人控制着媒体和政治议题走向,乡村和旧城市里那些无法发声的人民诉求才决定着选举成败。

本次选举中的民主党对这一点没有清醒的认识,希拉里团队直到投票前数周时才开始亲自到威斯康辛、密歇根等中西部铁锈带州拉票,甚至完全忽视了其中几个州;相比之下特朗普、彭斯等人则在这些州下足功夫,昔日的共和党初选对手克鲁兹不计前嫌为特朗普拉票,整个团队广泛发动居住偏远地区的选民出来发声。回头看来,民主党在中西部各州的失利,实在是情理之中。



美国各州选情图,蓝色为民主党,红色为共和党

那么,为什么向来替工会站台的民主党被工人唾弃?铁锈带各州在先前的两次选举中支持奥巴马,这次却选择了特朗普,是因为民主党及其工会未能解决这些州居民的生存问题,相反还增加了他们的生活负担。其他州的中下层百姓,也或多或少地面临同样的压力,因此更多人倒向特朗普或拒绝为民主党投票。

究其原因,民主党政府推行的强制保险、高税收政策加重了中低收入人群的负担,他们的收入没有低到有资格领取福利的程度,却需要用自己的薪水为福利政策买单。西方左翼的社会福利本质上是一种“人人为我、我为人人”的经济制度设计,然而对于部分生活拮据到终日工作、节衣缩食却还没有银行存款的美国选民而言,这种制度必然不受欢迎。

笔者见过有的美国人在身体健康时支持共和党(取消福利)、身体患病后突然转向的情况,然而仍有许多身体健康的美国选民自认为不能从民主党的福利制度中获益。虽然特朗普的重振制造业未必能够实现,他的减税主张却是这些选民迫切需要的“急救药”。

此外,特朗普的其他政策虽然听起来大多耸人听闻,却抓住了民众极其关心的几个议题;而民主党的太多精力放在所谓的“进步主义”议题上,力争讨好少数族裔,反而给普通民众造成了夸夸其谈、不接地气的印象。

例如在控制极端宗教势力和非法移民的问题上,特朗普团队的官方口径集中在“极端”群体上,在保持政治立场不出大错的情况下开始讨论解决措施;希拉里团队及其支持者站在道德高地批判特朗普为“种族主义者”,然而并不能提出吸引人的替代方案。

例如在奥兰多酒吧枪击案之后,特朗普首先重申了自己的观点,而民主党自奥巴马、希拉里以下则努力淡化嫌疑犯的特殊身份、强调要“用爱化解仇恨”;长此以往,民主党的言行不免有不正视问题之嫌。

另一个让民主党始终无法打进美国乡村的关键政策是禁枪,这与上文提到的城乡分化紧密相关。在定居城市的民主党精英看来,第二修正案是过时的殖民地时代法律;然而对于许多居住在偏远地区的农村居民而言,枪支仍然是生活的“必需品”。

在这些政策上,保守派的政策虽然显得“政治不正确”也未必可行,却呼应了选民的需求,因此得到了拥护。合法定居在美国的少数族裔,也不得不认真考虑这些与生存息息相关的话题;相比之下,民主党以特朗普上台后的“纳粹化”“种族清洗”来警告这些人不要支持特朗普,通过批评特朗普而非明确自己政策拉票,结果收效不佳。

应该指出,特朗普在竞选时所描述的许多政策未必可行,他也在访谈中屡次自相矛盾,表现出经验不足的缺点。对于铁锈带工人而言,即使重振制造业他们也很难回到黄金时代;反移民的美国人很快会发现墨西哥移民在低端岗位上的重要性;仇恨政客资本家的造反派恐怕最后也会失望,虽然特朗普公开招聘部分岗位,其内阁候选名单上却仍罗列着数名臭名昭著的“体制内”政商精英。目前已经有一派美国精英开始幻想特朗普政策失败的严重后果,并因此指责摇摆区选民“短视”。

问题是,自认为先觉者的美国自由派,为何不能在选举之前说服特朗普的支持者?

大多数希拉里支持者恐怕并没有选择与“老古董”们有效沟通,部分义务“说客”甚至选择了非常过激的群众运动手法,向反对者大扣帽子。“不支持希拉里就是歧视女性”“投票给特朗普就是支持种族歧视、性别歧视”甚至“特朗普就是三K党、希特勒”,这样的激进口号对交流看法毫无意义,反而使得部分选民“不敢言而敢怒”;他们虽然不在民调上和朋友圈里表态,却默默投了特朗普的票。

政治游说领域向来是谁主张谁举证,不努力说服对方又不尊重分歧,以“愚众”等字眼羞辱对方,这种策略对拉帮结派有百害而无一利。在本次选举之后,不少人已经开始呼吁左右翼和解、有人意识到“白人也可能是受歧视的族群”,这种认识对民主党重回正轨也是必要的。

当然也应看到,美国的白人民粹和左翼“进步人士”缺乏沟通的交集,这种情况随着特朗普当选而愈演愈烈。左翼“进步人士”当然也可以选择不沟通,然而该党至少也需要做好党内动员工作,发动支持者以踊跃投票与“种族主义”作斗争。本次大选中民主党的基本票仓仍然大于共和党;与其说特朗普是被美国群众用小推车抬进白宫,不如说是厌恶希拉里的群众选择沉默,听任特朗普及其拥趸(少于选民人口四分之一,不能简单概括为“沉默的大多数”)发动一场“农村包围城市”的“革命”。

希拉里通过超级代表和人脉淘汰了人气颇高的社会民主主义者伯尼·桑德斯,其团队又被维基解密连续曝出丑闻,自己隐瞒疾病的不诚实行为也随着9·11纪念日当天的意外而曝光,这些行为伤害了许多桑德斯支持者和中间偏左选民的感情;他们即使不支持特朗普,也很难继续投票给希拉里。



2016年2月,希拉里上台阶时已经需要几位助手搀扶

此外希拉里将过多的精力放在攻击竞争对手上,全然不顾自己因为相同策略输掉2008年初选的教训,没有用足够浅显易懂的言语突出自己的特点;当特朗普在集会上突出爱国、硬汉、“重振美国”等符号时,希拉里的团队只能提出抽象的进步主义口号,导致两人的竞选集会人数相差悬殊。

而主流媒体一边倒支持希拉里,先是抨击桑德斯,又在两党选举中铺天盖地地攻击特朗普,某电视台甚至在直播中掐掉想要批评克林顿丑闻的嘉宾;在网络自媒体高度发达的时代,媒体的欺骗行为又加深了普罗大众对精英集团和暗箱操作的仇恨情绪,甚至(在部分群众眼里)将“希拉里vs特朗普”演化为“腐败官僚vs反腐斗士”、“叛国者vs爱国者”。出于不为人知的原因,左翼媒体努力渲染希拉里“胜券在握”,这种阿谀奉承行为客观上麻痹了希拉里团队,也对激发选民的危机感起到了南辕北辙的作用。

上面所有对选举的反思,都是源于民主党的选民结构变化。昔日的民主党能够囊括从蓝领工人到白领知识分子的人群,然而在全球化时代,部分知识分子开始成为高科技产业和金融业的领军人物,部分左派政客、律师、学院派知识分子和学生则形成了以进步主义意识形态为核心的文化圈子;这两个集团相互拱卫,不但掌握了话语权,而且在经济上大获成功。制造业的工人,特别是人到中年、难以转业的低端工人则被全球化浪潮抛弃;正如历史所示,这些人一旦受到鼓动很容易倒向排外的保守主义,即使少数族裔的工人也面临着相同的吃饭问题。

事实上蓝营的重要据点(西海岸、新英格兰和其他大城市)的税收的确在“补贴”红区,然而这种间接的反哺远不如经济政策的影响直接,很难说工人会因为加州缴的税支持民主党。民主党精英被自己媒体营造的世界包围,带着道德优越感居高临下地对反对者加以批判,同时一厢情愿地认为工人和少数族裔会给自己投票,这种脱离群众的幼稚行为无法捏合本来就缺少利益交集的“潜在票仓”们;在两个“票仓”团体发生冲突的时候(例如同性恋酒吧恐怖袭击、歧视亚裔的SCA5法案等),该党精英则采取息事宁人的和稀泥手法,妄图以口号调和利益矛盾,事实上损害了一方并将选民推离自己。



特朗普能赢,民主党也有一定功劳

在这种情形下,民主党很难找到能够满足所有群体的领导人,虽然桑德斯在学生等人群里魅力非凡,他对其他群体的吸引力则逊于希拉里。在最理想的情况下,如果从全球化中受益的左翼精英能够向工人团体让利、切实平等地调解群体矛盾,民主党还会回到昔日的多数大党。

然而在反建制民粹主义大行其道的今日美国,倘若左翼民粹运动能够激励某个特定“票仓”真的投票,集中争取民主党群众中的某些团体或许是比较贴近实际的选择。桑德斯近日来表达了对数位民主党左翼政客,如非洲裔穆斯林众议员吉斯·爱立信(Keith Ellison)的鼎力支持,然而该党内也有不少声音认为这些左翼将进一步激怒工人,也不能为民主党获取赞助。

另一方面,民主党建制派的官僚作风在大选中暴露无遗;倘若继续走精英路线,民主党则有可能成为右翼民粹势力的靶子。倘若该党精英继续首鼠两端、继续以说教为拉票策略、继续以最大的恶意揣测异见者、继续推出高高在上的官僚主义候选人,恐怕就只能指望政治对手头脑发热、走上法西斯道路了。

为什么笔者会站在局外人的角度上对美国人民的政治生活出谋划策?虽然美国民主党的兴亡与中国国民没有直接相关,但它是美国政治中的重要平衡器;如果它不能正常发挥制衡作用,一个完全右倾、超出特朗普总统控制的美国对我们而言也是危险的。另外,虽然中国不实行美国式的两党竞选制度,但中共同样面临着构建“统一战线”、调节不同利益集团矛盾冲突的政治任务。民主党在2016年美国总统选举中的失败,向我们揭示了执政联盟无视底层利益、脱离基层群众的危险性,也在前苏联、乌克兰等“活体案例”后再次给中国敲响了一记警钟。

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Bingo
Executive VP
Executive VP
帖子: 2062
注册: 09/20/13 14:09

Re: US Election

帖子Bingo » 11/16/16 01:55

左棍们这次败选后一哭二闹三上吊的表现,正好实证了米歇尔说的话:“when they go low, we go lower!” /green
鸡跑:我的皮包在哪里,事业就在哪里。
鸡跑:我的分公司都开到六线城市去了。
鸡跑:我已经脱离了低级骗子的阶段了。
鸡跑:我现在一个月认识的小姐,比在美国五年都多。


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