538今天好安静啊

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跑锅
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注册: 11/14/07 13:31

538今天好安静啊

帖子跑锅 » 11/09/16 15:34

soul searching? 今年滑铁卢了

http://fivethirtyeight.com/
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

ybgx
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注册: 08/23/09 10:24

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子ybgx » 11/09/16 16:22

No need. Like the financial storm 2008, fancy models are not that relevant when input data is not that reliable. Silent majority don't even display yard signs anymore. What a pity!

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迪斯马森
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Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/09/16 16:23

拜民主党的文革所赐,谁还敢speak up?

ybgx
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注册: 08/23/09 10:24

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子ybgx » 11/09/16 16:25

PC is even worse than T himself. Agree!

迪斯马森 写了:拜民主党的文革所赐,谁还敢speak up?

ybgx
Executive VP
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帖子: 2544
注册: 08/23/09 10:24

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子ybgx » 11/09/16 16:26

Look, T was disqualified by elite even before election. What a joke! Not his fan at all but that pissed me off.

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跑锅
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Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子跑锅 » 11/09/16 16:28

It has nothing to do with "silent". These polls constantly draw 400-500 random samples (for the whole 320 million population) and they weigh the sample drawn according to demographics and historical turnout. The problem isn't sampling. It's the weighing method. When I heard Michigan rural dweller turnout changed from 12% in previous election cycles to 29%, I knew she was in big trouble.
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

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迪斯马森
Partner
Partner
帖子: 9163
注册: 09/19/06 11:48

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子迪斯马森 » 11/09/16 16:29

the missing signs in this election was alarming

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跑锅
Analyst
Analyst
帖子: 580
注册: 11/14/07 13:31

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子跑锅 » 11/09/16 16:30

ybgx 写了:Look, T was disqualified by elite even before election. What a joke! Not his fan at all but that pissed me off.

Don't rush to pat yourself. Trump got himself elected. But you'd still get yourself fired saying anything he said. It doesn't matter who's the president.
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟

ybgx
Executive VP
Executive VP
帖子: 2544
注册: 08/23/09 10:24

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子ybgx » 11/09/16 16:32

:roll:
迪斯马森 写了:the missing signs in this election was alarming

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跑锅
Analyst
Analyst
帖子: 580
注册: 11/14/07 13:31

Re: 538今天好安静啊

帖子跑锅 » 11/09/16 16:34

people on either side know there isn't much to be proud of either candidate. not exactly rocket science.

ybgx 写了::roll:
迪斯马森 写了:the missing signs in this election was alarming
Mr. t+1: aka 慢半拍
想躲开你暴跌的区域//却错过你反弹的大局//我没有胆量乱飞//也没有信心进或退
想逃离你瀑布的陷阱//却陷入不敢入场困境//我没有决定捞底的勇气//也没有做空的心情
我总是干着急//涨跌任由你决定//我如今胆小到只敢股评//总马后炮一文不名
我成了一个鸡指//盈亏全不关自己//暴涨三十你从不曾犹豫//我却傻站着玩模拟


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